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Friday, July 26, 2013

Social utilitarianism


In extending utilitarianism from the personal to the social, Bentham and his followers incorporated all the fallacies of the former, and added many more besides. If each man tries to maximize pleasure (and minimize pain), then the social ethical rule, for the Benthamites, is to seek always ‘the greatest happiness of the greatest number’, in a social felicific calculus in which each man counts for one, no more and no less.
The first question is the powerful one of self-refutation: for if each man is necessarily governed by the rule of maximizing pleasure, then why in the world are these utilitarian philosophers doing something very different – that is, calling for an abstract social principle (‘the greatest happiness of the greatest number’)?7 And why is their abstract moral principle – for that is what it is – legitimate while all others, such as natural rights, are to be brusquely dismissed as nonsense? What justification is there for the greatest happiness formula? The answer is none whatever; it is simply assumed as axiomatic, above and beyond challenge.
In addition to the self-refuting nature of the utilitarians clinging to an overriding – and unanalysed – abstract moral principle, the principle itself is shaky at best. For what is so good about the ‘greatest number’? Suppose that the vast majority of people in a society hate and revile redheads, and greatly desire to murder them. Suppose further, that there are only a few redheads extant at any time, so that their loss would entail no discernible drop in general production or in the real incomes of the non redheads remaining. Must we then say that it is ‘good’, after making our social felicific calculus, for the vast majority to cheerfully slaughter redheads, and thereby maximize their pleasure or happiness? And if not, why not? As Felix Adler wryly put it, utilitarians ‘pronounce the greatest happiness of the greatest number to be the social end, although they fail to make it intelligible why the happiness of the greater number should be cogent as an end upon those who happen to belong to the lesser number’.8
Furthermore, the egalitarian presumption of each person counting precisely for one is hardly self-evident. Why not some system of weighting? Again, we have an unexamined and unscientific article of faith at the heart of utilitarianism.
Finally, while utilitarianism falsely assumes that the moral or the ethical is a purely subjective given to each individual, it on the contrary assumes that these subjective desires can be added, subtracted, and weighed across the various individuals in society so as to result in a calculation of maximum social happiness. But how in the world can an objective or calculable ‘social utility’ or ‘social cost’ emerge out of purely subjective desires, especially since subjective desires or utilities are strictly ordinal, and cannot be compared or added or subtracted among more than one person? The truth, then, is the opposite of the core assumptions of utilitarianism. Moral principles, which utilitarianism claims to reject as mere subjective emotion, are intersubjective and can be used to persuade various persons; whereas utilities and costs are purely subjective to each individual and therefore cannot be compared or weighed between persons.
Perhaps the reason why Bentham quietly shifts from ‘maximum pleasure’ in personal utilitarianism to ‘happiness’ in the social realm is that talking about the ‘greatest pleasure of the greatest number’ would be too openly ludicrous, since the emotion or sensation of pleasure is quite clearly not addable or subtractable between persons. Substituting the vaguer and looser ‘happiness’ enabled Bentham to fuzz over such problems.9
Bentham's utilitarianism led him to an increasingly numerous ‘agenda’ for government intervention in the economy. Some of this agenda we have seen above. Others items include: a welfare state; taxation for at least a partial egalitarian redistribution of wealth; government boards, institutes and universities; public works to cure unemployment as well as to encourage private investment; government insurance; regulation of banks and stockbrokers; guarantee of quantity and quality of goods.



Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought (2 volume set)

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Personal utilitarianism


As we have seen, Jeremy Bentham's strictly economic views, especially when he slid back to mercantilism, had no impact on economic thought, even upon his own philosophic disciples such as James Mill and Ricardo. But his philosophic views, introduced into economics by these same disciples, left an unfortunate and permanent impact on economic thought: they provided economics with its underlying and dominant social philosophy. And that dominance would be no less powerful for being generally implicit and unexamined.
Utilitarianism provided economists with the ability to square the circle: to allow them to make pronouncements and take firm positions on public policy, while still pretending to be hard-headed, ‘scientific’, and therefore ‘value-free’. As the nineteenth century proceeded and economics began to become a separate profession, a guild with its own code and practices, it became possessed of an overwhelming desire to ape the success and the prestige of the ‘hard’ physical sciences. But ‘scientists’ are supposed to be objective, disinterested, unbiased in their scientific work. It was therefore assumed that for economists to espouse moral principles or political philosophy was somehow introducing the virus of ‘bias’, ‘prejudice’, and an unscientific attitude into the discipline of economics.
This attitude of crude imitation of the physical sciences ignored the fact that people and inanimate objects are crucially different: stones or atoms don't have values or make choices, whereas people inherently evaluate and choose. Still, it would be perfectly possible for economists to confine themselves to analysing the consequences of such values and choices, provided they took no stand on public policy. But economists burn to take such stands; in fact, interest in policy is generally the main motivation for embarking on a study of economics in the first place. And advocating policy – saying that the government should or should not do A, B or C, – is ipso facto taking a value position and an implicitly ethical one to boot. There is no way of getting around this fact, and the best that can be done is to make such ethics a rational inquiry of what is best for man in accordance with his nature. But the pursuit of ‘value-free’ science precluded that path, and so economists, by adopting utilitarianism, were able to pretend or to delude themselves that they were being strictly scientific, while smuggling unanalysed and shaky ethical notions into economics. In that way, economics embraced the worst of both worlds, implicitly smuggling in fallacy and bias in the name of hard-nosed value-freedom. The Benthamite infection of economics with the bacillus of utilitarianism has never been cured and remains as rampant and as predominant as ever.
Utilitarianism consists in two fundamental parts: personal utilitarianism, and social utilitarianism, the latter being built upon the former. Each is fallacious and pernicious, but social utilitarianism, which we are more interested in here, adds many fallacies, and would be unsound even if personal utilitarianism were to be upheld.
Personal utilitarianism, as launched by David Hume in the mid-eighteenth century, assumes that each individual is governed only by the desire to satisfy his emotions, his ‘passions’, and that these emotions of happiness or unhappiness are primary and unanalysable givens. The only function of man's reason is use as a means, to show someone how to arrive at his goals. There is no function for reason in setting man's goals themselves. Reason, for Hume and for later utilitarians, is only a hand-maiden, a slave to the passions. There is no room, then, for natural law to establish any ethic for mankind.
But what, then, is to be done about the fact that most people decide about their ends by ethical principles, which cannot be considered reducible to an original personal emotion? Still more embarrassing for utilitarianism is the obvious fact that emotion is often a hand-maiden of such principles, and is patently not an ultimate given but rather determined by what happens to such principles. Thus someone who fervently adopts a certain ethical or political philosophy will feel happy whenever such philosophy succeeds in the world, and unhappy when it meets a setback. Emotions are then a hand-maiden to principles, instead of the other way round.
In grappling with such anomalies, utilitarianism, priding itself on being anti-mystical and scientific, has to go against the facts and introduce mystification of its own. For it then has to say, either that people only think they have adopted governing ethical principles, and/or that they should abandon such principles and cleave only to unanalysed feelings. In short, utilitarianism has either to fly in the face of facts obvious to everyone (a methodology that is surely blatantly unscientific) and/or to adopt an unanalysed ethical view of its own in denunciation of all (other) ethical views. But this is mystical, value-laden, and self-refuting of its own anti-ethical doctrine (or rather, of any ethical doctrine that is not a slave to unanalysed passions).
In either case, utilitarianism is self-refuting in violating its own axiom of not going beyond given emotions and valuations. Furthermore, it is common human experience, once again, that subjective desires are not absolute, given and unchanging. They are not hermetically sealed off from persuasion, whether rational or otherwise. One's own experience and the arguments of others can and do persuade people to change their values. But how could that be if all individual desires and valuations are pure givens and therefore not subject to alteration by the intersubjective persuasion of others? But if these desires are not givens, and are changeable by the persuasion of moral argument, it would then follow that, contrary to the assumptions of utilitarianism, supra-subjective ethical principles do exist that can be argued and can have an impact on others and on their valuations and goals.
Jeremy Bentham added a further fallacy to the utilitarianism that had grown fashionable in Great Britain since the days of David Hume. More brutally, Bentham sought to reduce all human desires and values from the qualitative to the quantitative; all goals are to be reduced to quantity, and all seemingly different values – e.g. pushpin and poetry – are to be reduced to mere differences of quantity and degree. The drive to reduce quality drastically to quantity again appealed to the scientistic passion among economists. Quantity is uniformly the object of investigation in the hard, physical sciences; so doesn't concern for quality in the study of human action connote mysticism and a sloppy, unscientific attitude? But, once again, economists forgot that quantity is precisely the proper concept for dealing with stones or atoms; for these entities do not possess consciousness, do not value and do not choose; therefore their movements can be and should be charted with quantitative precision. But individual human beings, on the contrary, are conscious, and do adopt values and act on them. People are not unmotivated objects always describing a quantitative path. People are qualitative, that is, they respond to qualitative differences, and they value and choose on that basis. To reduce quality to quantity, therefore, gravely distorts the actual nature of human beings and of human action, and by distorting reality, proves to be the reverse of the truly scientific.
Jeremy Bentham's dubious contribution to personal utilitarian doctrine -in addition to being its best known propagator and popularizer – was to quantify and crudely reduce it still further. Trying to make the doctrine still more ‘scientific’, Bentham attempted to provide a ‘scientific’ standard for such emotions as happiness and unhappiness: quantities of pleasure and pain. All vague notions of happiness and desire, for Bentham, could be reduced to quantities of pleasure and pain: pleasure ‘good’, pain ‘bad’. Man, therefore, simply attempts to maximize pleasure and minimize pain. In that case, the individual – and the scientist observing him – can engage in a replicable ‘calculus of pleasure and pain’, what Bentham termed ‘the felicific calculus’ that can be churned out to yield the proper result in counselling action or non-action in any given situation. Every man, then, can engage in what neo- Benthamite economists nowadays call a ‘cost-benefit analysis’; in whatever situation, he can gauge the benefits – units of pleasure – weigh it against the costs – units of pain – and see which outweighs the other.
In a discussion which Professor John Plamenatz aptly says ‘parodies reason’, Bentham tries to give objective ‘dimensions’ to pleasure and pain, so as to establish the scientific soundness of his felicific calculus. These dimensions, Bentham asserts, are sevenfold: intensity, duration, certainty, propinquity, fecundity, purity and extent. Bentham claims that, at least conceptually, all these qualities can be measured, and then multiplied together to yield the net resultant of pain or pleasure from any action.
Simply to state Bentham's theory of seven dimensions should be enough to demonstrate its sheer folly. These emotions or sensations are qualitative and not quantitative, and none of these ‘dimensions’ can be multiplied or weighted together. Again, Bentham raised an unfortunate scientistic analogy with physical objects. A three-dimensional object is one where each object is linear, and therefore where all these linear units can be multiplied together to yield units of volume. In human valuation, even with pleasure and pain, there is no unit common to each of their ‘dimensions’ and therefore there is no way to multiply such units. As Professor Plamenatz trenchantly points out:

the truth is that even an omniscient God could not make such calculations, for the very notion of them is impossible. The intensity of a pleasure cannot be measured against its duration, nor its duration against its certainty or uncertainty, nor this latter property against its propinquity or remoteness.4

Plamenatz adds that it is true, as Bentham states, that people often compare courses of action, and choose those they find most desirable. But this simply means that they decide between alternatives, not that they engage in quantitative calculations of units of pleasure and pain.
But one thing can be said for Bentham's grotesque doctrine. At least Bentham attempted, no matter how fallaciously, to ground his cost-benefit analysis on an objective standard of benefit and cost. Later utilitarian theorists, along with the body of economics, eventually abandoned the pleasure-pain calculus. But in doing so, they also abandoned any attempt to provide a standard to ground ad hoc costs and benefits on some sort of intelligible basis. Since then, the appeal to cost and benefit, even on a personal level, has necessarily been vague, unsupported and arbitrary.
Moreover, John Wild eloquently contrasts utilitarian personal ethics with the ethics of natural law:

Utilitarian ethics makes no clear distinction between raw appetite or interest, and that deliberate or voluntary desire which is fused with practical reason. Value, or pleasure, or satisfaction is the object of any interest, no matter how incidental or distorted it may be. Qualitative distinctions are simply ignored, and the good is conceived in a purely quantitative manner as the maximum of pleasure or satisfaction. Reason has nothing to do with the eliciting of sound appetite. One desire is no more legitimate than another. Reason is the slave of passion. Its whole function is exhausted in working out schemes for the maximizing of such interests as happen to arise through chance or other irrational causes...
As against this, the theory of natural law maintains that there is a sharp distinction between raw appetites and deliberate desires elicited with the cooperation of practical reason. The good cannot be adequately conceived in a purely quantitative manner. Random interests which obstruct the full realization of essential common tendencies are condemned as antinatural... When reason becomes the slave of passion, human freedom is lost and human nature thwarted...
(T)he ethics of natural law sharply separates essential needs and rights from incidental rights. The good is not adequately understood as a mere maximizing of qualitatively indifferent purposes, but a maximizing of those tendencies which qualitatively conform to the nature of man and which arise through rational deliberation and free choice... There is a stable universal standard, resting on something firmer than the shifting sands of appetite, to which an appeal can be made even from the maximal agreements of a corrupt society. This standard is the law of nature which persists as long as man persists – which is, therefore, incorruptible and inalienable, and which justifies the right to revolution against a corrupt and tyrannical social order.5

Finally, in addition to the problems of the pleasure-pain calculus, personal utilitarianism counsels that actions be judged not on their nature but on their consequences. But, in the non-Bethamite, mere cost-benefit (rather than ‘objective’ pleasure-pain) analysis, how is anyone to gauge the consequences of any action? And why is it considered easier, let alone more ‘scientific’, to judge consequences than to judge an act itself by its nature? Furthermore, it is often very difficult to figure out what the consequences of any contemplated action will be. How we are to find the secondary, tertiary, etc. consequences, let alone the more immediate ones? We suspect that Herbert Spencer, in his critique of utilitarianism, was correct: it is often easier to know what is right than what is expedient.



Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought (2 volume set)

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

From laissez-faire to statism


Jeremy Bentham (1748–1832) began as a devoted Smithian but more consistently attached to laissez-faire. During his relatively brief span of interest in economics, he became more and more statist. His intensified statism was merely one aspect of his major – and highly unfortunate – contribution to economics: his consistent philosophical utilitarianism. This contribution, which opens a broad sluice-gate for state despotism, still remains as Bentham's legacy to contemporary neoclassical economics.
Bentham was born in London the son of a wealthy lawyer, whiled away his youth at Oxford, and was admitted to the bar in 1772. But it soon became clear that Bentham was not interested in a career as an attorney. Rather, he settled down for life with his inherited wealth to become a cloistered philosopher, legal theorist, and ‘projector’ or crank, eternally grinding out schemes for legal and political reform which he urged upon the great and powerful.
Bentham's first and enduring interest was in utilitarianism (which we shall examine further below), and which he launched with his first published work at the age of 28, the Fragment on Government (1776).
Most of his life, Bentham functioned as the Great Man, scribbling chaotically on endless and prolix manuscripts elaborating on his projected reforms and law codes. Most of the manuscripts remained unpublished until long after his death. The affluent Bentham lived in a capacious house surrounded by flunkies and disciples, who copied revision after revision of his illegible prose to get ready for eventual publication. He conversed with his disciples in the same made-up jargon with which he peppered his writings. While a cheery conversationalist, Bentham brooked no argument from his aides and disciples; as his precocious young disciple John Stuart Mill later recalled with kindly understatement Bentham ‘failed in deriving light from other minds'. Because of this trait, Bentham was surrounded not by alert and knowledgeable disciples but by largely uncomprehending aides who, in the perceptive words of Professor William Thomas, ‘looked on his work with a certain resigned scepticism as if its faults were the result of eccentricities beyond the reach of criticism or remonstrance’. As Thomas continues:

The idea that he was surrounded by a band of eager disciples who drew from his system a searching critique of every aspect of contemporary society, which they were later to apply to various institutions in need of reform, is the product of later liberal myth-making. So far as I know, Bentham's circle is quite unlike that of any other great political thinker. It consisted not so much of men who found in his work a compelling explanation of the social world around them and gathered about him to learn more of his thoughts, as of men caught in a sort of expectant bafflement at the progress of a work which they would have liked to help on to completion but which remained maddeningly elusive and obscure.1

What Bentham needed desperately were sympathetic and candid editors of his work, but his relationship with his followers precluded that from happening. ‘For this reason’, adds Thomas, ‘the steadily accumulating mass of manuscripts remained largely a terra incognita, even to the intimate members of our circle’. As a result, for example, such a major work in manuscript, Of Laws in General, astonishingly remained unedited, let alone unpublished, until our own day.
If anyone could have played this role, it was Bentham's outstanding follower, James Mill, whom we will deal with more fully below (Chapter 3). In many ways, Mill had the capacity and personality to perform the task, but there were two fatal problems: first, Mill refused to abandon his own intellectual work in order to subordinate himself exclusively to aiding the Master. As Thomas writes, ‘Sooner or later all Bentham's disciples faced the choice of absorption or independence’. Though he was a devoted follower of Benthamite utilitarianism, Mill's personality was such that absorption for him was out of the question.
Second, the slipshod and volatile Bentham desperately needed shaping up, and the brisk, systematic, didactic, and hectoring James Mill was just the man to do the shaping. But, unsurprisingly, Bentham, the Great Man, was not about to be shaped up by anyone. The personality clash was too great for their relationship to be anything but arm's length, even at the height of Mill's discipleship, before Mill achieved economic independence from his wealthy patron. Thus, in exasperation, Mill wrote to a close mutual friend about Bentham: ‘The pain he seems to feel at the very thought of being called upon to give his mind to the subject, you can have but little conception of. At the same time Bentham, even long afterwards, confided his lingering resentment of Mill to his last disciple, John Bowring: ‘He will never willingly enter into discourse with me. When he differs he is silent... He expects to subdue everybody by his domineering tone – to convince everybody by his positiveness. His manner of speaking is oppressive and overbearing.’ There is no better way to summarize the personality clash between them.2
Bentham's first published work, the Fragment on Government (1776), gained young Bentham an entrée into leading political circles, particularly the friends of Lord Shelburne. These included Whig politicians like Lord Camden and William Pitt the younger, and two men who were quickly to become Bentham's close friends and earliest disciples, the Genevan Etienne Dumont and Sir Samuel Romilly. Dumont was to be the main carrier of Benthamite doctrine to the continent of Europe.
While utilitarian political and legal reform continued to be his main interest throughout his life, Bentham read and absorbed The Wealth of Nations in the late 1770s or early 1780s, quickly becoming a devoted disciple. Although Bentham praised practically no other author, he habitually referred to Adam Smith as ‘the father of political economy’, a ‘great master’, and a ‘writer of consummate genius’. In the early 1780s, Bentham's brother Samuel, a wealthy engineer, was engaged by the Empress Catherine the Great to organize various industrial projects. Samuel invited Jeremy to stay with him in Russia, which he did from the mid-1780s to the end of 1787, with a view to presenting an ‘all-comprehensive [legal] code’ to enable that despot to govern her realm more efficiently.
Bentham characteristically never completed the code for Catherine, but, while in Russia he learned – falsely, as it turned out – that William Pitt, now prime minister, was preparing to urge a reduction in the legal maximum rate of interest from 5 to 4 per cent. Agitated, Bentham wrote and soon published, in 1787, his first, and only well-known work on economics: the scintillating and hard-hitting Defence of Usury. Trying to bring more consistency into Smithian laissez-faire, Bentham argued against all usury laws whatever. He grounded his view squarely on the concept of freedom of contract, declaring that ‘no man of ripe years and of sound mind, acting freely, and with his eyes open, ought to be hindered... from making such a bargain, in the way of obtaining money, as he thinks fit’. The presumption, in any situation, is for freedom of contract: ‘You, who fetter contracts; you, who lay restraints on the liberty of man, it is for you... to assign a reason for your doing so.’ Furthermore, how can ‘usury’ be a crime when it is exchange by mutual consent of lender and borrower? ‘Usury’, Bentham concludes, ‘if it must be an offence, is an offence committed with consent, that is, with the consent of the party supposed to be injured, cannot merit a place in the catalogue of offences, unless the consent were either unfairly obtained or unfreely: in the first case, it coincides with defraudment; in the other, with extortion.’
In his appendix to the Defence of Usury, Bentham restates and sharpens the Turgot-Smith defence of savings. Savings results in capital accumulation: ‘Whoever saves money, as the phrase is, adds proportionately to the general mass of capital... The world can augment its capital in only one way: viz by parsimony.’ This insight leads to the principle that ‘capital limits trade’, that the extent of trade or production is limited by the amount of capital that has been accumulated. In short: ‘the trade of every nation is limited by the quantity of capital.’
The laissez-faire implication, as Bentham saw, is that government action or spending cannot increase the total amount of capital in society; it can only divert capital from free market to less productive uses. As a result, ‘no regulations nor any efforts whatsoever, either on the part of subjects or governors, can raise the quantity of wealth produced during a given period to an amount beyond what the productive powers of the quantity of capital in hand... are capable of producing’.
Defence of Usury had a great impact in Britain and elsewhere. Dr Thomas Reid, the distinguished Scottish ‘common-sense’ philosopher who succeeded Adam Smith to the chair of moral philosophy at Glasgow, strongly endorsed the book. The great Comte de Mirabeau, the leading force in the early stages of the French Revolution, had the work translated into French. And in the United States, the tract went into several editions, and it inspired several states to repeal their laws against usury.
In the course of the Defence, there are hints of valuable analysis. Lending is defined as ‘exchanging present money for future’, and other intimations of time-preference or waiting as a key to saving include such phrases as the saver having ‘the resolution to sacrifice the present to [the] future’. Bentham also intimates that part of interest charged includes a risk premium, a kind of insurance premium for the risk of loss incurred by the lender.
During the 1780s, Bentham was also writing his ‘Essay on Reward’, published only a half-century later as the Rationale of Reward. In it, Bentham expounded enthusiastically on ‘Competition as rewards’, and hailed the ‘advantages resulting from the most unlimited freedom of competition’. It was on this principle of free competition and opposition to governmental monopolies that ‘the father of political economy’ had, in Bentham's over-enthusiastic words, ‘created a new science’.
In his next economic work, the unpublished ‘Manual of Political Economy’ (1795), Bentham continued the laissez-faire theme of ‘No more trade than capital’. The government, he emphasized, can only divert investment funds from the private sector; it cannot raise the total level of investment. ‘Whatever is given to any one branch, is so much taken from the rest... Every statesman who thinks by regulation to increase the sum of trade, is the child whose eye is bigger than his belly.’ Towards the end of the same work, however, a cloud no bigger than a man's hand appeared that would eventually take charge of Bentham's economic analysis. For Bentham began his rapid slide down the inflationist chute. In a kind of appendix to the work, he states that government paper money could increase capital if resources were not ‘fully employed’. There is no analysis, as of course there never is in the inflationist canon, of why these resources were ‘unemployed’ in the first place, i.e. why their owners withheld them from use. The answer must be: because the resource owner demanded an excessively high price or wage: inflation is therefore a means of fooling resource-owners into lowering their real demands.
It did not take long for Jeremy Bentham to slide down the slippery slope from Adam Smith and what would be Say's law back to mercantilism and inflationism. Shortly afterwards, in an unpublished ‘Proposal for the Circulation of a [New] Species of Paper Currency’ (1796), Bentham happily wedded his ‘projecting’ and constructivist spirit to his new-found inflationism. Instead of floating bonds and paying interest on them, the government, he proposed, should simply monopolize all issue of paper notes in the kingdom. It could then issue the notes, preferably non-interest bearing, ad libitum and save itself the interest.
Bentham was scarcely at his best answering the question of what limit there might be to this government paper issue. The limit, he answered, would obviously be ‘the amount of paper currency in the country’. Bentham's modern editor is properly scornful of this patent claptrap: ‘It is like saying “the sky's the limit” when we do not know how high the sky may be.’3
In his later writings on the subject, Bentham searched for some limits to paper issue, if unsuccessfully. But his commitment to a broadly inflationist course deepened further. In his unfinished ‘Circulating Annuities’ (1800), he developed his government paper scheme further, and hailed the serviceability of inflation in wartime. Indeed, Bentham makes an all-out assault on the Turgot-Smith-Say insights and actually declares that employment of labour is directly proportional to the quantity of money: ‘No addition is ever made to the quantity of labour in any place, but by an addition made to the quantity of money in that place... In this point of view, then, money, it should seem, is the cause, and the cause sine qua non, of labour and general wealth.’ Quantity of money is all; so much for Smithian doctrine! In fact, Bentham went further in Circulating Annuities, heaping scorn on his alleged mentor for denouncing the mercantilist preoccupation with the state's piling up of gold and silver and with a ‘favourable’ balance of trade. There is no absurdity, averred Bentham,

in the exultation testified by public men at observing how [great] a degree of what is called the balance of trade is in favour of this country... Seduced by the pride of discovery, Adam Smith, by taking his words from the kitchen, has attempted to throw an ill-grounded ridicule on the preference given to gold and silver After once again calling for the elimination of bank paper for the benefit of a government monopoly of paper issue (in the fragmentary ‘Paper Mischief Exposed’, 1801), Bentham reached the acme of inflationism in his ‘The True Alarm (1801). In this unpublished work, Bentham not only continued the full-employment motif, but also grumbled about the allegedly dire effects of hoarding, of money saved from consumption that went into hoards instead of investment. In that case, disaster: a fall in prices, profits and production. Nowhere does Bentham recognize that hoarding and a general fall in prices also means a fall in costs, and no necessary reduction in investment or production. Indeed, Bentham worked around to the Mandeville fallacy about the beneficial and uniquely energizing effects of luxurious spending. In the mercantilist and proto-Keynesian manner, saving is evil hoarding while luxury consumption animates production. How capital can be maintained, much less increased, without saving is not explained in this bizarre model.
James Mill and David Ricardo have been considered loyal Benthamites, and this they were in utilitarian philosophy and in a belief in political democracy. In economics, however, it was a far different story, and Mill and Ricardo, sound as a rock on Say's law and the Turgot-Smith analysis, were firm in successfully discouraging the publication of the ‘The True Alarm’. Ricardo scoffed at almost all of later Benthamite economics and, in the case of money and production, asked the proper questions: ‘Why should the mere increase of money have any other effect than to lower its value? How would it cause any increase in the production of commodities... Money cannot call forth goods... but goods can call forth money.’ Bentham's major theme... ‘that money is the cause of riches’ – Ricardo rejected firmly and flatly.
In his penultimate work of importance on economics, Jeremy Bentham came full circle. He had launched the economic part of his career with a hard-hitting attack on usury laws; he ended it by defending maximum price control on bread. Why? Because the mass of the public would favour cheap bread (assuredly so!), and so there would then be a ‘rational’ and ‘determinate standard’ for the good and moral price of bread, a standard which apparently free contract and free markets cannot set. What would such a standard be? Showing that for Bentham his ad hoc utilitarianism and cost-benefit analysis had totally driven any sound economics out of his purview, he answered that it would have to be empirical and ad hoc. Casting economic logic to the winds, Bentham maintained that the authorities should set a ‘moderate’ maximum price, which would weigh the costs and benefits, the advantages and disadvantages, of each possible price. And Bentham assured his readers of his moderation: he did ‘not mean it [his proposal] as a whip or scorpion for the punishment of the growers or vendors of corn’. But that would be the inevitable result.
Ad hoc empiricism was now rampant in Bentham. Admitting that all previous attempts at maximum price control were disasters, like any later institutionalist or historicist Bentham denied any relevance, since the circumstances of each particular time and place are necessarily different. In short, Bentham denied economics altogether – that is, denied the possibility of laws abstracting from particular circumstances and applying to all exchanges or actions everywhere.
In arguing against the opponents of price control, Bentham often used reasoning that was tortuous and even absurd. For example, to the charge that maximum price control would lead to attempted consumption exceeding supply (one of the greatest problems with price control), Bentham insisted that this could not happen in Britain, where the Poor Law ensured welfare payment to the poor with an increase in the price of bread. The opinion that, at some time or other, the demand curve can be vertical and not falling is in every century the hallmark of an economic ignoramus, and Bentham now passed that test. For centuries, writers and theorists knew that demand increased as price fell, and Bentham was now writing as if economics had never existed – and could never exist.
Since consistency was the realm of despised deductive logic, Bentham denied that his opposition to usury laws had any relation to his defence of price control on bread. But while he still maintained that his earlier analysis had been correct, he now offered a crucial revision: he had overlooked that a notable advantage of a usury law is that the government can then borrow more cheaply (at the expense, of course, of squeezing out marginal private borrowers). And he went on to admit that he now found this ‘advantage’ decisive, so that now he would place usury laws on the governmental agenda: ‘I should expect to find the advantages of it in this respect predominate over its disadvantages in all others.’ In short, Bentham, the alleged ‘individualist’ and exponent of laissez-faire, finds that advantage to government outweighs all private disadvantage!
Again treating his earlier views on usury, Bentham denied that he had ever believed in any self-adjusting and equilibrating tendencies of the market, or that interest rates properly adjust saving and investment. He went on in a revealing diatribe against laissez-faire and natural rights, to demonstrate to one and all the incompatibility between utilitarianism on the one hand and laissez-faire or property rights on the other:

I have not, I never had, nor shall have, any horror, sentimental or anarchical, of the hand of government. I leave it to Adam Smith, and the champions of the rights of man... to talk of invasions of natural liberty, and to give as a special argument against this or that law, an argument the effect of which would be to put a negative upon all laws. The interference of government, as often as in my jumbled view of the matter the smallest balance on the side of advantage is the result, is an event I witness with altogether as much satisfaction as I should its forbearance, and with much more than I should its negligence.

One wonders by what mystical standard the ‘scientific’ Bentham managed to weigh the advantages and disadvantages of every particular law.
Three years later, in 1804, Jeremy Bentham lost interest in economics, a fact for which we must be forever grateful. It is only unfortunate that this waning of zeal had not occurred a half-decade before. The case of Jeremy Bentham, however, should be instructive to that host of economists that attempt to weld utilitarian philosophy with free market economics.
One would think that the master of utilitarianism would have contributed to utility analysis in economics, but oddly enough Bentham proved to be interested only in the ‘macro’ realms of economic thought. The only exception came in the largely unfortunate True Alarm (1801), in which Bentham not only declared that ‘all value is founded on utility’, but also enters into a cogent critique of Adam Smith's alleged ‘value paradox’. Water, Bentham noted, can and does have economic value, while diamonds do have value in use as a foundation of its economic value. Continuing on, Bentham approaches the marginalist refutation of the value paradox:

The reason why water is found not to have any value with a view to exchange is that it is equally devoid of value with a view to use. If the whole quantity required is available, the surplus has no kind of value. It would be the same in the case of wine, grain, and everything else. Water, furnished as it is by nature without any human exertion, is more likely to be found in that abundance which renders it superfluous; but there are many circumstances in which it has a value in exchange superior to that of wine.


Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought (2 volume set)

Saturday, July 20, 2013

The state and taxation

Amidst the morass of bland economic writings on taxation, Jean-Baptiste Say stands out like a beacon light. It is true that he was unusually devoted – even in that generally liberal era – to laissez-faire and the rights of private property, and only waffled a very few times in that creed. But for some reason, most laissez-faire and libertarian thinkers in history have not really considered taxation to be an invasion of the rights of private property. In J.B. Say, however, an implacable hostility to taxation pervades his work; he tended to make it responsible for all the economic evils of society, even, as we have seen, for recessions and depressions. Say's discussion of taxation was brilliant and unique; and yet, as with almost all his work, it has received no attention whatever from the historians of economic thought.
In contrast to almost all other economists, Say had an astonishingly clearsighted view of the true nature of the state and of its taxation. In Say there was no mystical quest for some truly voluntary state, nor any view of the state as a benign semi-business organization supplying services to a public grateful for its numerous ‘benefits’. No; Say saw clearly that the services government indubitably supplies are to itself and to its favourites, and that all government spending is therefore consumption spending by the politicians and the bureaucracy. He also saw that the tax funds for that spending are extracted by coercion at the expense of the tax-paying public.

As Say points out: ‘The government exacts from a tax-payer the payment of a given tax in the shape of money. To meet this demand, the tax-payer exchanges part of the products at his disposal for coin which he pays to the tax-gatherers.’ The money is then spent for the government's ‘consumption’ needs, so that ‘the portion of wealth, which passes from the hands of the tax-payer into those of the tax-gatherer, is destroyed and annihilated’. Were it not for taxes, the tax-payer would have spent his own money on his own consumption. As it is, the state ‘enjoys the satisfaction resulting from that consumption’.

Say goes on to attack the ‘prevalent notion’ that tax monies are no burden on the economy, since they simply ‘return’ to the community via the expenditures of government. Say is indignant:

This is gross fallacy; but one that has been productive of infinite mischief, inasmuch as it has been the pretext for a great deal of shameless waste and dilapidation. The value paid to government by the tax-payer is given without equivalent or return: it is expended by the government in the purchase of personal service, of objects of consumption...

Thus, in contrast to the naive Smith's purblind assumption that taxation always confers proportional benefit, we see J.B. Say treating taxation as very close to sheer robbery. Indeed, at this point Say revealingly quotes with approval Robert Hamilton's likening of government to a large-scale robber. Hamilton had been refuting this very point: taxation is harmless because the money is recirculated into the economy by the state. Hamilton had likened such impudence to the ‘forcible entry of a robber into a merchant's house, who should take away his money, and tell him he did him no injury, for the money, or part of it, would be employed in purchasing the commodities he dealt in, upon which he would receive a profit’. (Hamilton might have added a Keynesian touch: that the robber's spending would benefit his victim many-fold, by the benign operations of the magical multiplier.) Say then comments on Hamilton's point that ‘the encouragement afforded by the public expenditure is precisely analogous’.

Say then bitterly goes on to denounce the ‘false and dangerous conclusion’ of writers who claim that public consumption (government expenditures) increases general wealth. But the damage is not really in the writing: ‘If such principles were to be found only in books, and had never crept into practice, one might suffer them without care or regret to swell the monstrous heap of printed absurdity...’. But unfortunately, these precepts have been put into ‘practice by the agents of public authority, who can enforce error and absurdity at point of the bayonet or mouth of the cannon’. In short, once again, Say sees the uniqueness of government as the exercise of force and coercion, particularly in the way it extracts its revenue.
Taxation, then, is the coercive imposition of a burden upon the members of the public for the benefit of the government, or, more precisely, of the ruling class in command of the government. Thus Say writes:

Taxation is the transfer of a portion of the national products from the hands of individuals to those of the government, for the purpose of meeting the public consumption or expenditure... It is virtually a burthen imposed upon individuals, either in a separate or corporate character, by the ruling power... for the purpose of supplying the consumption it may think proper to make at their expense; in short, an impost, in the literal sense.

He is not impressed with the apologetic notion, properly ridiculed in later years by Schumpeter, that all society somehow voluntarily pays taxes for the general benefit; instead, taxes are a burden coercively imposed on society by the ‘ruling power’. Neither is Say impressed if the taxes are voted by the legislature; to him this does not make taxes any more voluntary: for ‘what avails it... that taxation is imposed by consent of the people or their representatives, if there exists in the state a power, that by its acts can leave the people no alternative but consent?’
Moreover, taxation cripples rather than stimulates production, since it robs people of resources that they would rather use differently:

Taxation deprives the producer of a product, which he would otherwise have the option of deriving a personal gratification from, if consumed... or of turning to profit, if he preferred to devote it to an useful employment... [T]herefore, the subtraction of a product must needs diminish, instead of augmenting, productive power.

Say engages in an instructive critique of Ricardo, which reveals the crucial difference over the latter's long-run equilibrium approach and the great difference in their respective attitudes toward taxation. Ricardo had maintained in his Principles that, since the rate of return on capital is the same in every branch of industry, taxation cannot really cripple capital. For, as Say puts it, ‘the extinction of one branch by taxation must needs be compensated by the product of some other, towards which the industry and capital, thrown out of employ, will naturally be diverted’. Here is Ricardo, blind to the real processes at work in the economy, stubbornly identifying a static comparison of long-run equilibrium states with the real world. Say replies forcefully and trenchantly:

I answer, that whenever taxation diverts capital from one mode of employment to another, it annihilates the profits of all who are thrown out of employ by the change, and diminishes those of the rest of the community; for industry may be presumed to have chosen the most profitable channel. I will go further, and say, that a forcible diversion of the current or production annihilates many additional sources of profit to industry. Besides, it makes a vast difference to the public prosperity, whether the individual or the state be the consumer. A thriving and lucrative branch of industry promotes the creation and accumulation of new capital; whereas, under the pressure of taxation, it ceases to be lucrative; capital diminishes gradually instead of increasing; wealth and production decline in consequence, and prosperity vanishes, leaving behind the pressure of unremitting taxation.

Say then adds a charming sentence, taking a praxeological slap at Ricardo's fondness for what might be called his method of utterly unrealistic, verbal mathematics, ‘Ricardo has endeavoured to introduce the unbinding maxims of geometrical demonstration; in the science of political economy, there is no method less worthy of reliance’.
Say then goes on to heap scorn on the argument that taxes can positively stimulate people to work harder and produce more. Work harder, he replies, to furnish funds to allow the state to tyrannize still further over you! Thus:

To use the expedient of taxation as a stimulative to increased production, is to redouble the exertions of the community, for the sole purpose of multiplying its privations, rather than its enjoyments. For, if increased taxation be applied to the support of a complex, overgrown, and ostentatious internal administration, or of a superfluous and disproportionate military establishment, that may act as a drain of individual wealth, and of the flower of the national youth, and an aggressor upon the peace and happiness of domestic life, will not this be paying as dearly for a grievous public nuisance, as if it were a benefit of the first magnitude?

What, then, is the bottom line; what is Say's basic prescription for taxation? Indeed, what is his prescription for total public spending? Basically, it is what one might expect from a man who believed the state to be a ‘grievous public nuisance’ and ‘an aggressor upon the peace and happiness of domestic life’. Quite simply, ‘the best scheme of [public] finance, is to spend as little as possible; and the best tax is always the lightest’. In the next sentence, he amends the latter clause to say ‘the best taxes, or rather those that are least bad...’.

In short, J.B. Say, unique among economists, offered us a theory of total government spending as well as a theory of overall taxation. And that theory was a lucid and remarkable one, amounting to: that government is best (or ‘least bad’) that spends and taxes least. But the implications of such a doctrine are stunning, whether or not Say understood them or followed them through. For if, in the Jeffersonian phrase, that government is best that governs least, then it follows that ‘least least’ is zero, and therefore, as Thoreau and Benjamin R. Tucker were later to point out, that government is best that governs – or in this case, spends and taxes – not at all!

Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought (2 volume set)

Friday, July 19, 2013

 The theory of money

Say's excellent discussion of money, like most of the rest of his doctrine, has been grievously neglected by historians of thought. He begins by setting forth a theory of how money originates that was later to be developed in a famous article by Carl Menger and would form the basis of the first chapter in every money and banking text for generations. Money, he pointed out, originates out of barter. To facilitate exchanges and overcome the difficulties of barter, people on the market begin to use particularly marketable commodities as media of exchange. Specifically, under barter everyone, in order to buy a product, must find someone who desires his own specific product, and this soon becomes very difficult. Thus: ‘The hungry cutler must offer the baker his knives for bread; perhaps, the baker has knives enough, but wants a coat; he is willing to purchase one of the tailor's with his bread but the tailor wants not bread, but butcher's meat; and so on to infinity’.

How to overcome this problem of what later came to be called the ‘double coincidence of wants?’ By finding a more generally marketable commodity which the seller will take in exchange:

By way of getting over this difficulty, the cutler, finding he cannot persuade the baker to take an article he does not want, will use his best endeavours to have a commodity to offer, which the baker will be able readily to exchange again for whatever he may happen to need. If there exist in the society any specific commodity that is in general request, not merely on account of its inherent utility, but likewise on account of the readiness with which it is received in exchange for the necessary articles of consumption... that commodity is precisely what the cutler will try to barter his knives for; because he has learnt from experience, that its possession will procure him without any difficulty, by a second act of exchange, bread or any article he may wish for.

That commodity is precisely the money in that society.
Say then goes into a by now familiar analysis of which commodities are most likely to be chosen on the market as monies. A money commodity must have a high inherent value – this is, value in its pre-monetary use. It must also be physically easily divisible, preserving a proportionate quota of its value when divided; it should have a high value per unit weight, so that it will both be scarce and valuable, and easily portable; and it must be durable, so it can be retained as value for a long time. Of course, once a commodity is chosen as a general medium of exchange, its value becomes much higher than it had been in the pre-monetary state.

Say follows the continental tradition of assimilating money to all other commodities; i.e., the value of money, as of all other commodities, is determined by the interaction of its supply and its demand. Its value, its purchasing power on the market – moves directly with its demand and inversely with its supply. While he lacked the marginal approach, Say pointed the way to the eventual integration of a utility theory of goods with money. Since money, too, is an object of desire, its utility is the basis for its demand on the market. Say also criticized Ricardo and the British classical school for attempting to explain the value of money, not by utility or supply and demand, but, as in the case of all other goods, by its cost of production. In the case of money, only the supply of money and not the demand was considered important and the supply was supposedly governed by the cost of mining gold or silver.
Say was a hard-money man, insistent that all paper must be instantly convertible into specie. Irredeemable paper expands rapidly in quantity and depreciates the value of the currency, and Say pointed to the recent issue by the revolutionary French government of the assignats, inconvertible paper that depreciated eventually to zero. Say was thus able to analyse one of the first examples of runaway inflation.

If the national money is deteriorated, it becomes an object to get rid of it in any way, and exchange it for commodities. This was one of the causes of the prodigious circulation that took place during the progressive depreciation of the French assignats. Everybody was anxious to find some employment for a paper currency, whose value was hourly depreciating; it was only taken to be re-invested immediately, and one might have supposed it burnt the fingers it passed through.

Say also pointed out that inflation systematically injures creditors for the benefit of debtors.
Say was highly critical of the Smith-Ricardo yen to find an absolute and invariable measure of the value of money. He pointed out that while the relative values of money to other prices can be estimated, they are not susceptible to measurement. The value of gold or silver or coin is not fixed but variable as is that of any commodity.

One of the splendid parts of Say's theory of money was his trenchant critique of bimetallism. He was insistent that the government's fixing the ratio of the weights of the two precious metals was doomed to failure, and only caused perpetual fluctuations and shortages of one or the other metals. Say called for parallel standards, that is, for freely fluctuating exchange rates between gold and silver. As he pointed out: ‘gold and silver must be left to find their own mutual level, in the transactions in which mankind may think proper to employ them’. And again, the relative value of gold and silver ‘must be left to regulate itself, for any attempt to fix it would be in vain’.

While at one point Say inconsistently looks with favour on Ricardo's plan for a central bank redeeming its notes only in gold bullion and not even coin, the general thrust of his discussion is for ultra-hard money. On the whole, Say comes out for 100 per cent specie money, for a money where paper is only a ‘certificate’ backed fully by gold or silver, ‘A medium composed entirely of either silver or gold, bearing a certificate, pretending to none but its real intrinsic value, and consequently exempt from the caprice of legislation, would hold out such advantages to every department of commerce’ that it would be adopted by all nations. So insistent was Say on separating money from government that he called for changing the national names of monies to actual units of weight of gold or silver e.g. grams instead of francs. In that way, there would be a genuinely worldwide commodity money, and the government could not impose legal tender laws for paper money or debase currency standards. The entire current monetary system, Say writes happily, ‘would thenceforth fall to the ground; a system replete with fraud, injustice, and robbery, and moreover so complicated, as rarely to be thoroughly understood, even by those who make it their profession. It would ever after be impossible to effect an adulteration of the coin...’. In short, Say concludes eagerly, ‘the coinage of money would become a matter of perfect simplicity, a mere branch of metallurgy’.

Indeed, the only role that Say would, inconsistently, reserve for government is a monopoly of the coinage, since that coinage was to be this simple ‘branch of metallurgy’ that government could presumably not cripple or destroy.

There is not a great deal of analysis of banking in Say's Treatise. But despite his aberration in being favourable to the Ricardo plan for a central bank bullion standard, the main thrust of his discussion is, once, again, to separate government from bank credit expansion, either by a 100 per cent reserve banking system, or by freely competitive banking, which would presumably approximate that condition. Thus Say writes highly favourably of the 100 per cent reserve banks of Hamburg and Amsterdam. Free banks of circulation (issuing bank notes) he holds to be far better than a monopoly central bank, for ‘the competition obliges each of them to court the public favour, by a rivalship of accommodation and solidity’. And if these banks are not to be based on 100 per cent specie reserve, which Say indicates would be the best system, competition would keep them investing in sound, very short-term credit which could easily be used to redeem their bank notes.

Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought (2 volume set)

Thursday, July 18, 2013

 Recession and the storm over Say's law

We come now to a final, critical question about Say's law. Why did the storm over the law appear only in two massive clusters? For the timing of the swirling controversy over the law is no accident. J.B. Say coined the law in 1803, and James Mill brought it to Britain in 1808, converting Ricardo and his disciples. But why was there no particular controversy over the law until much later? Specifically, the storm erupted in 1819, when the French-Swiss economist Jean Charles Leonard Simonde de Sismondi (1773–1842) published his Nouveaux principes d'économie politique (New Principles of Political Economy). Sismondi's book was followed the next year by the Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus's (1766–1834) Principles of Political Economy (1820). The odd point is that both these men had been ardent Smithians for two decades; why publish these heretical underconsumptionist views at virtually the same moment?

Sismondi's aristocratic Florentine family had settled in France, only as Huguenots to be driven by persecution to settle in Geneva, the Calvinist heartland. Sismondi was born in Geneva, the son of a Calvinist clergyman. When the radical influence of the French Revolution reached Geneva, the Sismondis moved to London, where young Sismondi had a chance to study and participate in English business affairs.

Sismondi settled down as a farmer in Tuscany in the late 1790s, publishing a physiocratic tract on Tuscan agriculture in 1801. Soon after, he became an ardent follower of Adam Smith, and published his two-volume Smithian work, De la richesse commerciale (On Commercial Wealth) in Geneva in the same year – 1803 – that Say published his famous Traité. While Say skyrocketed to influence and fame, Sismondi's work was ignored, and remained totally unknown outside France. Perhaps resentment at this fate played a role is Sismondi's radical conversion, embodied in his Nouveaux Principes. But the timing, the prompting for this conversion, was critical, namely: the end, in 1815, of a generation of massive war and inflation in Europe led quickly and inevitably to a post war deflation and depression. Recessions, especially on such a grand scale, were new phenomena in Europe; there was therefore no body of theoretical explanation, and hence the typical business cry of ‘glut’ or ‘overproduction’ struck a chord among many observers. In the case of Sismondi, it led him straightaway and permanently into a thoroughgoing and lifelong statism, including the advocacy of a comprehensive welfare state, a deep hostility to capitalism and the factory system, and a call for return to a simple agrarian economy. In the second edition of his Nouveaux Principes in 1827, Sismondi, in his preface, proclaims the ‘new economics’ or ‘new liberalism’ which ‘invokes government intervention’ instead of laissez-faire.
Sismondi was offered a professorship of political economy at the University of Vilna on the strength of his first book; the Nouveaux Principes brought him an offer from the Sorbonne. But Sismondi preferred to remain in Geneva, churning out a remarkably prolific series of historical works (including a 16-volume history of the Italian republics in the Middle Ages, and a 31-volume history of the French), and tending to the life of a gentleman farmer. On his farm he fought against overproduction in his own dotty way: making sure that production would be as low as possible by choosing the feeblest workers for employment on the farm, and deliberately having his house repaired by an incompetent worker. One wonders why he did not go all the way in his living the exemplary life of underproduction, and stop working or producing altogether. Thoroughly embittered at the lack of recognition of his socialistic views, Sismondi write shortly before his death in 1842: ‘I leave this world without having made the slightest impression, and nothing will be done’. Would that he had been right.

Far more of an impact at the time was made by the simultaneous conversion to underconsumptionism by the Rev. Malthus. Malthus, son of an aristocratic country gentleman, graduated from Cambridge with honours in mathematics, and was ordained in the Anglican clergy. After serving as a fellow of a college in Cambridge, Malthus became a country curate, writing his famous Essay on Population in 1798. Malthus was more than the gloomy population theorist that made his name: he was also an ardent Smithian economist. In 1804, Malthus became the first academic economist in England, taking up a chair of history and political economy at the new small East India College of Haileybury, established by the East India Company to train future employees. Not only was he the first, Malthus was to remain the only academic political economist in England for the next two decades.

Malthus was a firm friend of Ricardo, and his break with the Smith-Ricardo tradition on underconsumption did not mar their close friendship. The controversy gave rise to a famous correspondence between them, and when Ricardo died in 1823 he left Malthus a small legacy as a token of their camaraderie. More important is the fact that Malthus lost interest in his underconsumptionist heresy after 1824, and quickly reverted to being a leader of Smithian classical economics. Clearly the reason for Malthus's loss of interest was the fact that Britain recovered from the post-Napoleonic depression after 1823, and the first storm over Say's law was over.
Despite the fact that Malthus's interest in his underconsumption theory was generated and maintained solely by the postwar recession, his doctrine was, oddly enough, not a cyclical theory at all but an alleged tendency of free markets to a permanent depression. It should also be noted that Malthus was not worried about savings leaking out into hoarding and remaining unspent, He was an overproductionist as well as an underconsumptionist, so that invested savings only made matters worse by increasing production: ‘If... commodities are already so plentiful that an adequate portion of them is not profitably consumed, to save capital can only be still further to increase the plenty of commodities, and still further to lower already low profits’.

While Say, in reply to critics, did not of course come up with a full-fledged theory to explain the general recession and ‘overproduction’ in relation to a profitable selling price, he did offer some remarkably prescient insights which have been completely overlooked by historians, perhaps because they were presented in his Letters to Malthus rather than in his Treatise.

First, Say takes up the postwar depression in the United States, for Malthus had claimed in response to Say, that since the US enjoyed low taxes and free markets, their absence could not be the reason for the glut suffered there. Say very sensibly attributes the basic problems in the US to the great prosperity that country had enjoyed as a neutral during most of the Napoleonic wars, so that, unburdened by blockade, its exports and its commerce enjoyed unusual prosperity. Thus, with the end of the wars in 1815, and the swift return of European maritime trade in both hemispheres, the US was found to have overexpanded its mercantile products and, in contrast, underproduced agricultural or manufactured goods. So in a deep sense, the problem is not general overproduction, but an overproduction of some goods and underproduction of others. What the United States is suffering from, then, is underproduction of these other goods. The Americans could have used the increased production to exchange for more of the goods offered by the resurgent European maritime trade. Prophetically, Say predicted that ‘A few years more and their [American] industry altogether will form a mass of productions, amongst which will be found articles fit to make profitable returns or at least profits, which the Americans will employ in the purchase of European commodities’. And then Americans and Europeans will each produce whatever they are best and most efficient at.

Those commodities which the Europeans succeed in making at least expense will be carried to America, and those which the American soil and industry succeed in creating at a lower rate than others, will be brought back. The nature of the demand will determine the nature of the productions; each nation will employ itself in preference about those productions in which they have the greatest success; that is, which they produce at least expense, and exchanges mutually and permanently advantageous will be the result.

And how about European business? What is the problem there? Why is it depressed? Here, Say put his finger on the heart of the problem: ‘costs of production multiplied to excess’. In short, the problem with the European depression was not that there was a ‘general overproduction’ but that entrepreneurs had bid up costs of production (factor prices) too high, so that consumers were not willing to purchase the products at prices high enough to cover costs. The problem, in fact, was neither the producing of too many goods nor not buying enough, but a bidding up of costs to too high a level. Say goes on to say that these excessive costs created ‘disorders... in the production, distribution, and consumption of value produced; disorders which frequently bring into the market quantities greater than the want, keeping back those that would sell, and whose owner would employ their price in the purchase of the former’. In short, the bidding up of excess costs in some way distorted the production structure so as to cause a massive overproduction of some goods and an underproduction of others.

After these passages, pregnant with hints of the later Austrian theory of the trade cycle, Say unfortunately goes off on a tangent in ascribing the excess costs to the taxation of industry and the market. But then he returns with a remarkably perceptive passage, attributing seeming ‘superabundance’ to massive ignorance and error on the part of the entrepreneurs:

This superabundance... depends also upon the ignorance of producers or merchants, of the nature and extent of the want in the places to which they sent their commodities. In later years there have been a number of hazardous speculations, on account of the many fresh connexions with different nations. There was everywhere a general failure of that calculation which was requisite to a good result...

In short, the problem centres on a general failure of entrepreneurial forecasting and ‘calculation’ leading to what turns out to be an excessive bidding up of costs. Unfortunately, Say does not pursue this crucial point to query why such an unusual entrepreneurial failure should have taken place. But he does go on to anticipate von Hayek's important point about entrepreneurs and producers employing the market as a learning experience, to become better at estimating costs and demands on the market. Say writes:

but because many things have been ill done does it follow that it is impossible, with better instruction, to do better? I dare predict, that as the new connexions grow old, and as reciprocal wants are better appreciated, the excess of commodities will everywhere cease; and that a mutual and profitable intercourse will be established.

With the recovery of Europe from the postwar depression, Say's law – at least in the rather vulgarized form adopted by the British classical school16 – became absorbed into the mainstream of economic thought and was challenged only by cranks and crackpots who properly constituted what Keynes later called ‘the underworld’ of economics. These denizens were resurrected by John Maynard Keynes in his General Theory, which, written during the depths of another and even more intense depression (1936), hailed them all – from Malthus to later underconsumptionists and to the egregious German-Argentinian merchant Silvio Gesell (1862–1930), who urged that the government force everyone to spend money in a brief period of time after receiving it. Gesell's objective, as in the case of all the most flagrant money cranks, was to lower the rate of interest to zero, a goal Keynes was later to echo in his call for the ‘euthanasia of the rentier [bond-holder]’. It is perhaps fitting that this Gesell, whom Keynes called ‘the strange, unduly neglected prophet’, capped his dubious career by becoming the finance minister of the short-lived revolutionary Soviet republic of Bavaria in 1919.

Keynes's own doctrine followed in the line of Malthus and the others, except that underspending in general was substituted for underconsumption as the allegedly critical economic problem. Keynes made a denunciation of Say's law the centrepiece of his system. In stating it, Keynes badly vulgarized and distorted the law, leaving out the central role of price adjustments, and had the law saying simply that total spending on output will equal total incomes received in production.
Since Keynes's day, economists have managed to obfuscate Say's rather simple notion with a welter of turgid discussions of Say's alleged ‘principle’ or ‘identity’, made all the more obscure by a plentiful use of mathematics, a form of alleged explication particularly out of place when dealing with such an anti-mathematical theorist as J.B. Say.

Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought (2 volume set)